Weekend Shockers! Duke Outlasts Notre Dame, Colorado Runs Past Oregon

In what has to be one of the greatest wins in Blue Devil history, Duke, a 21 point underdog, outlasted the Irish 38-35 under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus late Saturday afternoon. Duke has made great strides under David Cutcliff, including four straight Bowl Games, and this huge win over the Irish in South Bend will certainly help in Blue Devil recruiting. And that was not the only surprise. A very improved Colorado Buffalo team topped Oregon in their own backyard, downing the Ducks 41-38 in one of the most difficult venues to win in….Autzen Stadium. Both games marked what could amount to program changing wins. Around the country, Wisconsin demolished Michigan State 30-6 in East Lansing to set up future showdowns with Michigan and Ohio State. The Badgers travel to the Big House to face Michigan this upcoming Saturday. Stanford survived at UCLA 22-13 and now faces another huge challenge traveling to undefeated Washington Friday night. Utah and Arizona State both posted wins to remain among the Pac 12’s unbeaten. Tennessee was all but left for dead in the first half against the Gators, looking inept and trailing 21-3, but the Vols came to life in the second half, much to the delight of Rocky Top fans, and The Volunteers snapped the 11 game losing streak posting a 38-28 win. Texas A&M continues an amazing run over quality opposition, having already posted a big wins over UCLA and Auburn, the Aggies looked impressive in dismantling undefeated Arkansas 45-24 late Saturday night. Texas A&M has certainly positioned themselves well for a run at the SEC West title. And in a very controversial ending, Auburn beat LSU 18-13 after the scoreboard had already registered an LSU win 19-18. Replay correctly showed LSU did not get the final play off in time (which registered a touchdown). So, the score was reversed and Auburn survived. Alabama remains solidly on top of this week’s Billingsley Report, with Wisconsin and Stanford both jumping idle Ohio State in this week’s rankings. Houston remains as one of the Nation’s elite coming in at #5. Stay tuned for Week #6 projections coming Wednesday.

Tennessee Seeks First Win Over Florida in 11 Years

The #19 Florida Gators travel to Neyland Stadium Saturday boasting a series record 11 straight wins, and needless to say, Volunteer fans are restless and eager for a win. #7 Tennessee has done nothing to impress me in their first 3 games, struggling over Appalachian State, Virginia Tech and Ohio (although App. State and VTech are certainly worthy opponents). Playing at home is certainly an advantage for the Vols, but this team is going to have to play better football, on both sides of the ball, to beat this Florida team. I see no reason, really, that Florida should not continue their dominance of Tennessee…..but darn, the streak has to end at some point right? If Tennessee is ever gonna get it done, this is the year. I’ll take the Vols. Tennessee 24 Florida 23. #5 Stanford at #25 UCLA – I was impressed however, with the way the Cardinal handled the Trojans last weekend on the Farm, winning 27-10. At the same time UCLA was putting the brakes on BYU 17-14. The Bruins are tough to beat at home, and this is a tough road game for Stanford, but I believe the Cardinal are the best team in the Pac 12, and Christian McCaffery is, in my opinion, the best overall player in college football so far in this young season. (Yes, even better than Lamar Jackson, although Louisville’s QB is pretty spectacular). This may come down to overtime, but I’ll take Stanford 31 UCLA 24. #14 Texas A&M vs #11 Arkansas – Arlington, Texas – This game has almost become an Arlington tradition. 5 of the last 7 games have been held here with most of them coming down to the 4th quarter. The Razorbacks have a stunning win over TCU in Fort Worth already under their belt. A win here would thrust them into national title talk and certainly make them a contender in the SEC west. But Texas A&M has an even more impressive resume so far, beating UCLA at home and Auburn on the road. The Aggies have won the last 4 in a row and I believe they’ll make it 5. Texas A&M 28 Arkansas 24. #18 LSU at #31 Auburn – Speaking of Auburn….the Tigers host, well, the Tigers this weekend, those from Baton Rouge this time, not those from Clemson that War Eagle has already succumbed to. I’m not sure what to think of Auburn right now, but they are either really average on offense, or Texas A&M is awfully good on defense. The Tigers just couldn’t sustain hardly anything last weekend. Of course, LSU is not exactly an offense juggernaut itself. First team to 21 wins! LSU 21 Auburn 20. # 41 California at #45 Arizona State – The Bears posted a stunning upset over Texas last Saturday and now hit the road to Tempe. The Sun Devils are 3-0 but struggled mightily in San Antonio last Saturday night, darn near getting beat before posting 32-28 win over UTSA. I think it was a wake up call for the Devils….and the Bears are probably still hibernating over their win over the Longhorns. Arizona State 35 California 31. #33 Southern Cal at #17 Utah – The Trojans are reeling and need this win bad. I’m not sure what to think of the USC program, but I know this…..a loss here that puts USC at 1-3, given their upcoming schedule, this team could be looking at a losing season. The Utes are 3-0 with a big win on the season over arch rival BYU and a convincing win on the road over San Jose St. A win here and Utah positions themselves nicely for a run at the Pac 12 South title. If this game were in LA, I’d be going with the Trojans, but in Rice-Eccles Stadium…I’ll go with the Utes. Utah 31 USC 28. #53 West Virginia vs #44 BYU – Landover, Maryland– Brigham Young has already faced Arizona, Utah and UCLA… and they are 0-3. Now they head to the East Coast to face undefeated West Virginia. The Cougars could be 0-4 and still be one of the better teams in college football. I hate to say it, but I think they will be…0-4 that is. West Virginia 32 BYU 23. For all this week’s projections: Billingsley Report Billingsley+ (MOV)

Buckeyes Boom Sooners 45-24

In one of the most anticipated non-conference games of the 2016 season a young but very talented Ohio State defense harassed Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield all night long (and it was a long night after a 2.5 hour lightening delay) and shut down the Sooner running attack for a dominating 45-24 win in Norman, Oklahoma. The Sooner defense could not stop J.T. Barrett and the prolific Buckeye offense. Ohio State’s win on the road positioned the Buckeyes well for a run at the coveted 4 positions in the National Championship Race. Alabama, 48-43 winner over Ole Miss in Oxford, and Ohio State have begun to separate themselves as the Nation’s two elite teams in this early 2016 season. Around the nation Saturday, Michigan State withstood a furious 4th quarter rally by the Irish and held on in South Bend for a 36-28 win. Nebraska finally got the marquis win they needed to begin the process of returning to prominence in college football, with a 35-32 win over Oregon in Lincoln. Louisville shockingly dismantled Florida State 63-20, and Stanford, Utah and Washington continued undefeated in their march toward Pac 12 play. Stay tuned Wednesday for next week’s projections. Billingsley+ and Personal rankings will follow later today (Sunday).

Weekend offers Super Slate of Games

The 2016 season began with what some analysts called the best ever, then week two slipped to almost boring status……but fear not fans, this weekend returns to top notch status, full of contests that rival being called the greatest. Once again I plunge into the ridiculous art of college football predictions: #1 Alabama at #18 Ole Miss – When Mississippi won this game in Oxford two years ago it was considered a mild upset, but when the Rebels whipped Alabama in Tuscaloosa last year, it was a shocking upset. To think Mississippi could make it 3 in a row over the Tide is, well, unthinkable. Ole Miss is more than capable of pulling another upset, and it won’t be an easy game for Alabama that’s for sure, but if Mississippi is going to win, Chad Kelly will have to play the game of his life. I think the Crimson Tide defense may have him scrambling for his life……which may not be such a bad thing if he can turn it into some positive running yards. But in the end, I just feel Bama will prevail. Alabama 31 Ole Miss 27. #3 Florida State at #29 Louisville– In my pre-season projections for the ACC I commented on the importance of this game in the ACC title race. As it turns out, it’s even more than that. The way Louisville’s offense is rolling if the Cardinal’s can outscore the Seminoles they may just find themselves in the midst of a national title race. This is not a good time for Florida State’s defense to be banged up. Stakes are high and I think Louisville is up for the challenge. Louisville 38 Florida State 31. #4 Houston at #61 Cincinnati– The Cougars have proven they are a good team by virtue of their win over Oklahoma two weeks ago but I hope they have returned to earth because this game has upset written all over it. Good thing Houston played Lamar last weekend instead of going straight on the road to Cincinnati. The Bearcats looked sluggish in their opener against Tennessee Martin, but looked much better beating the Big Ten’s Purdue on hostile ground in West Lafayette. This is a hard game to pick. It’s a Thursday night game and there is no way to know how focused and prepared the Cougars will be…..but I guarantee you, Cincinnati will be both. If Houston wins handily, I’ll be as impressed as their win over the Sooners….well, almost. I’ll play it safe here, but I’m not going to be surprised if Cincinnati wins. Houston 35 Cincinnati 28. #14 Michigan State at #30 Notre Dame – The Irish bounced back well at home with a win over Nevada after that stunning loss to Texas in Austin. Michigan State had the week off. Beware, the Spartans had an extra week to prepare and I’m betting they took full advantage of it. It’s hard to beat Notre Dame in South Bend. Touchdown Jesus casts a long shadow. But these teams have a long, long history (Notre Dame leads 48-28-1) and Michigan State has had some success winning in South Bend, it just seems to bring out the best in the Spartans. Maybe they are still smarting over the 10-10 tie in 1966. Notre Dame is favored by 7 and that kind of took me by surprise. Seems like a lot of points. I’m so, so tempted to take Michigan State here, but I’m just too much of a scardy cat. Notre Dame 24 Michigan State 23. #26 Texas at #53 California– Speaking of teams who better have returned to earth….here is another one. The Longhorns could easily blow this one to the Bears. Cal had a heartbreaking loss on the road to up and coming San Diego State last week and they are hungry for a win. If Texas loses, expect the Horns fans to put Charlie Strong right back on the hot seat again. Fans are so fickle. Texas 31 California 24. #31 UCLA at #42 Brigham Young – Both of these teams need a win bad. The Bruins blew it in College Station two weeks ago and the Cougars are coming off a truly heartbreaking loss to arch rival Utah. Brigham young is trying to survive the most difficult schedule in college football. Hosting UCLA is an advantage but at this stage it’s still like jumping from the frying pan into the fire. A loss here could be a slippery slope for the Cougars. BYU plays well at home, but I think the Bruins may prove to be just too much on offense. UCLA 42 Brigham Young 28. #24 Texas A&M at #27 Auburn – Have the Aggies turned things around? This is the game that will answer that question for sure. Auburn took Clemson to the wire the same day Texas A&M surprised UCLA. Both teams had super easy wins over cream puffs last week. Wow…..I could go either way here. Just flip a coin. I’ll take War Eagle at home. Auburn 27 Texas A&M 24. #32 Oregon at #43 Nebraska – This game is unbelievably huge for both teams. Nebraska fans are weary of settling for average teams. The program has slipped into mediocrity. If Nebraska is EVER going to return to greatness, it absolutely begins here. For Oregon, a win would go a long way towards gaining momentum for the upcoming Pac 12 title run and a return to national prominence. Both teams have been impressive in their first two wins. This is another coin flip folks, but I have a gut feeling the Ducks will prevail on the road. Husker fans may suffer the fate of another mediocre year. Oregon 42 Nebraska 31. #5 Ohio State at #12 Oklahoma – The are many games that I remember as special throughout my 50+ years as a college football fan, but few surpass the 1977 Buckeye/Sooner game in Columbus when Oklahoma’s Uwe von Schamann led the Ohio State fan’s in a chant of “block that kick” then calmly proceeded to knock a 41 yard field goal dead through the center of the uprights with 3 seconds left to give Oklahoma a 29-28 win in the very first game played between these two storied programs. Woody Hayes was one of my personal heroes because he was so passionate about winning. Trust me…..he was not a happy camper that day. I’ll be honest….I don’t even want to make a prediction in this game, but how can I ignore one of the biggest games of the season? This is do or die for both teams in the race for a playoff spot. Contrary to popular belief the Sooners are not truly out of it yet. If Oklahoma wins, and goes 11-1, and Ohio State wins the Big 10, the Sooners still have a shot. Both teams are loaded with talent. Both have great coaches, both have great QB’s, both have great leadership on the team. The game is in Norman, but I truly believe Ohio State is a slightly better team. Is it OK with everyone if I just side step this game? No, you want to put me on the record huh? What the hell…… Oklahoma 29 Ohio State 28. Does that score sound familiar? For all of this weeks projections follow these links: Billingsley Report Billingsley+ (MOV)

Oklahoma State Robbed, Alabama Shines, Utah Escapes, Arkansas Outlasts

A critical error on the part of the officiating crew allowed Central Michigan an untimed down, which miraculously produced a touchdown and a stunning 30-27 win over the Cowboys in Stillwater Saturday afternoon. No word on whether the officiating crew will be suspended for their inexcusable gaffe. Unfortunately NCAA rules clearly state the outcome of a game cannot be changed, even in the event of such an egregious error. The horrendous mistake could cost the Big 12 dearly in the event the Cowboys go on to win the conference title. Even using descriptive adjectives is not enough to fully express my displeasure. Around the nation, Alabama held true to form, and jumped to #1 in this week’s Billingsley Report in the process, by beating #40 Western Kentucky 38-10. Arkansas held on in two overtimes to defeat TCU 41-38 in Forth Worth and Utah escaped with a 20-19 win over BYU after the Cougars tried and failed on a two point conversion try as the game ended. BYU opted for trying for a win rather than kicking an extra point and potentially tying the game which would have forced overtime with the Utes. Tennessee came to life in the second half, helped along by numerous Virginia Tech turnovers, and cruised to a 45-24 win over the Hokies in front of a new NCAA record crowd of 156, 990 fans. Stay tuned Wednesday for Billingsley’s projections for week #4.

From Feast to Famine….weekend slate slim in comparison to opening.

Over the years we have certainly learned that every game is important in college football. A single loss can mean the difference in an invitation to the playoff, but it’s hard to get as pumped up for a weaker opponent, and we have our share of snoozers this weekend. But, there are a few exceptions. I’m not sure why I torture myself by only picking the hard games every week…..Here is a sneak peak into this weekend’s crystal ball: #25 Arkansas at #17 TCU – The Horned Frogs host old SWC foe Arkansas. This game has been a long time in the making. These two have not met since the Hogs left for the SEC after the 1991 season. They have played 68 times with Arkansas holding a 43-23-2 lead. Things are quite different in Fort Worth now. The Froggies have gone from SWC cellar dwellers to Big 12 royalty and don’t think TCU has forgotten about being pushed around by the Razorbacks in the old days. The TCU fans want this game bad…..and I think Gary Patterson will deliver. TCU struggled mightily with South Dakota State….but not to the degree Arkansas struggled with Louisiana Tech. Both of these teams have a lot of improving to do. TCU 34 Arkansas 27. #45 Penn State at #50 Pittsburgh – Speaking of renewing old rivalries….. this is one I wasn’t sure we would ever see again. The series is very tight, after 96 meetings Penn State holds a 50-42-4 lead, and the teams have not met since 2000. This is a tough game to pick, but I gotta go with the home team. Pittsburgh 24 Penn St. 21. #52 California at #39 San Diego State– The Bears took a week off after their trip down under to Sydney where they thumped Hawaii 51-31. The Aztecs are fresh off a 31-0 shellacking of, well, New Hampshire. This game is a big one for both of these teams. San Diego State has dreams of a MWC title, and a win over a Power Five team sure would look good on their resume, and they are at home…..but Cal is a good team and has aspirations for the 2016 season on their own. A Bear win here would sure help Cal on the way towards a bowl bid and this game will be critical in working towards that goal. This will be close, but I think the Aztecs will pull it out. San Diego State 28 California 27. #43 Texas Tech at #59 Arizona State – The Red Raiders have a long history with Arizona, but shockingly, this is only the third meeting with Arizona State. The two previous meetings split 1-1. Both teams looked relatively impressive in opening wins over lesser competition, but now it’s time to show what they are made of. The game is a virtual tossup and my two systems have opposite projections here. Margin of victory formula has Texas Tech by 2, No margin formula has Arizona State by 1. I always favor the home team in a close game, but my gut says the Red Raiders in a road win. Texas Tech 45 Arizona State 42. #8 Tennessee vs #51 Virginia Tech in Bristol, Tn. – Will they really reach that 150,000 goal in attendance? Wow, that would certainly be a record never to be broken. I absolutely cannot believe all the bad press the Volunteers received after their opening 20-13 win over Appalachian State! My projection was Tennessee by 4. I thought Las Vegas was crazy out of line having Tennessee favored by 22! The Mountaineers were ranked #24 in my pre-season poll and well….. I guess I was right. The Hokies were average in their opening win over Liberty, but hey, a win is a win and it was a nice debut for Justin Fuente. I expect good things and big things for Fuente’s future, but this game belongs to Tennessee. The Volunteers will put it all together this week…..no more bad press. Tennessee 37 Virginia Tech 28. #42 Brigham Young at #26 Utah – Let the Holy War begin! As much as these two programs always try to take the high road because of their Mormon faith, let’s face it…..fun is fun, and there is no love lost between these two old rivals. I absolutely love this series, It is a must see and almost always comes down to the wire. Utah has dominated the series of late, winning the5 last contests, but only one game was decided by more than a touchdown. Utah leads the series of 90 games 55-31-4. BYU had a stunning 18-16 win over Arizona last week, showing a lot of character by winning in what was basically a hostile environment in Glendale. Utah had a warm up against Southern Utah, winning 24-0. The Utes have held their own in the Pac 12, something I questioned whether or not they would be able to do. Brigham Young has maintained one of the most stable programs in Major College Football and is always competitive. The Cougars would be a great addition to the Big 12, and this game will go a long way to proving that. Brigham Young 28 Utah 24. Follow all of Billingsley’s Projections here:Billingsley ReportBillingsley+ (MOV)

Seminoles Stunning Comeback Vaults Florida State to #1 in Billingsley Report

In the first half it looked like another Top 5 team would bite the dust as Ole Miss dominated Florida State offensively and defensively. But the Seminoles regrouped, settled into their routine, and ran their game plan to perfection in the second half en-route to a 45-34 win over Mississippi in Orlando. The game capped off a topsy turvy wacky (and very exciting) Labor Day weekend slate of games that saw Oklahoma and LSU both fall to other Top 26 opponents. The Sooners were stunned 33-23 on the road by #10 Houston and LSU was surprised 16-14 on the road by #26 Wisconsin. Both the Sooners and the Tigers remained in this week’s Top 15. The win for Houston jumped the Cougars all the way to #4 in this week’s Billingsley Report. In the weekend’s most surprising and entertaining game, Texas outlasted Notre Dame 50-47 in two overtimes Sunday Night. The Billingsley+ and Billingsley Personal Reports will be posted Wednesday by Noon along with the Week #3 projections.

Full Slate of Holiday Weekend Games Start Season Off With A Bang

Although the 2016 season officially kicked off in Sydney, Australia last Friday with Cal outlasting Hawaii 51-31, this weekend carries the anticipation of the full season getting underway. Much has been written about this being the greatest opening weekend in college football history, and while that statement is up for debate, there is no question 2016 ranks at or near the top for sure. Just check out these gems: The early game at 11AM CT finds #4 Oklahoma traveling to NRG Stadium in Houston for a pivotal game with the #10 Cougars. Playoff hopes for Houston hinge on upsetting the Sooners, catapulting the Cougars into national prominence right out of the gate. A loss to Houston and the Sooners would be hard pressed to work their way into the CFP. It’s not going to be easy for Oklahoma and the game could come down to the wire, but Mayfield and company will survive. Oklahoma 31 Houston 28. #7 LSU versus #26 Wisconsin in Green Bay. Will Les Miles recapture the magic? This is a great game to start in that direction. Will Leonard Fournette’s ankle injury stop him from running all over Wisconsin? Can the Tigers get production in the passing game? Lots of unanswered questions, but I think the Tigers are out to prove a point on the road. LSU 35 Wisconsin 24. #21 UCLA at #41 Texas A&M. The PAC 12 needs some big wins opening weekend if they are going to establish themselves as a firm contender for a shot at the national championship. The Bruins have what it takes to win this game, but geez….College Station is a tough environment for an opening road game. Very tough game to pick, but I’m going with my gut and saying UCLA can get it done. UCLA 28 Texas A&M 27 #18 Georgia versus #19 North Carolina in Atlanta. You can’t get more evenly matched than this for an opening contest. Lots of question marks on both sides. New coach for Georgia, lots of lost talent for North Carolina. This is a tossup in the truest since of the word, but hey…..Atlanta is still located in Georgia so I’m going with the Dawgs! Georgia 27 North Carolina 21. Saturday’s prime time contest in Arlington, Texas finds defending National Champion and current #1 Alabama taking on #33 Southern California.This is another great opportunity for the PAC 12 to make a splash, but I’m not counting on it. I’m not convinced the Tide will be clicking on all cylinders just yet, and the Trojans will be very motivated and may make a contest out of it for 3 quarters, but in the end, Alabama will prevail. Alabama 35 USC 24. The “Battle of the Tigers” kicks off an hour later as #2 Clemson opens at #32 Auburn. This is a scary opening game for Clemson, a team picked by many to win the national championship. But it’s tough to open in Jordon-Hare Stadium and there is no doubt Auburn will be well prepared for this game. I’m tempted to pick an upset because it’s highly likely…..but how can I not believe Deshuan Watson will find a way? Clemson 38 Auburn 37. #54 Arizona tangles with #47 Brigham Young in a key game that will set the pace for both programs in 2016, unfortunately no one East of the Rockies will see it…..the game kicks off at 9:30 PM CT. College Football sold it’s soul to television long ago, and the PAC 12 wonders why they get less media coverage and poor national TV ratings….. but I digress. Both teams need this win for a shot at a decent season. BYU plays one of the toughest (if not the toughest) schedules in the nation in 2016. The game is at a neutral site ( Glendale) but these two old rivals are very familiar with one another and need no introduction. This series dates to 1936 and these teams were conference buddies in the WAC through 1977. Close call here, but my gut says BYU by a hair. Brigham Young 28 Arizona 27. #46 Texas hosts #16 Notre Dame in a rare Sunday Night prime time game. What a treat for college fans to have this game on tap for Sunday night. An expected record crowd will turn out to see if Charlie Strong is making progress in Austin. These teams have given college football some of it’s greatest memories in history. Who can ever forget the 24-11 Irish win against the #1 ranked undefeated Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl after the 1970 season. The loss denied Texas a second straight National Championship. This is a very talented Notre Dame team, well coached and surely well prepared…..but something tells me Texas will play the game of their young Longhorn lives and upset the Irish in a classic. Texas 32 Notre Dame 31. #3 Florida State tangles with #14 Ole Miss in the Labor Day weekend finale Monday Night. The Seminoles run for a National Championship begins with a bang in 2016 as Florida State takes on an Ole Miss team with dreams of an SEC West title and possible playoff hopes of their own. This game could go either way. If Chad Kelly is in perfect form and on target, I think the Rebels could pull an upset…..but they will have to stop Dalvin Cook and that is a tall order. Seminoles in a squeaker. Florida State 35 Ole Miss 31. The Week 2 Billingsley Rankings will be posted by Noon on Tuesday September 6. Follow all of Billingsley’s Projections Here: Billingsley Report Billingsley+

Golden Bears Top Hawaii 51-31 to Begin 2016 Season

Hawaii matched California point for point early in the first quarter, but the Golden Bear’s offense proved too much for the Warriors in the second half and California came away with a 51-31 victory. The game opened the 2016 college football season and was played in Sydney, Australia. The lone game in week one made for sparse changes in the Billingsley Rankings. Cal moved up two positions from #53 to # 51 in the initial Billingsley Report this week. A full slate of games begins Thursday night September 1 followed by a much anticipated opening Saturday that includes several Top 25 matches. The early game at 11AM CT finds #4 Oklahoma traveling to NRG Stadium in Houston for a pivotal game with the #10 Cougars. Afternoon games include #7 LSU versus #26 Wisconsin in Green Bay, #21 UCLA at #41 Texas A&M, and #18 Georgia versus #19 North Carolina in Atlanta . Saturday’s prime time contest in Arlington, Texas finds defending National Champion and current #1 Alabama taking on #33 Southern California. The “Battle of the Tigers” kicks off an hour later as #2 Clemson opens at #32 Auburn. #54 Arizona tangles with #47 Brigham Young in a key game that will set the pace for both programs in 2016, unfortunately no one East of the Rockies will see it…..the game kicks off at 9:30 PM CT. College Football sold it’s soul to television long ago, and the PAC 12 wonders why they get less media coverage and poor national TV ratings….. but I digress. #46 Texas hosts #16 Notre Dame in a rare Sunday Night prime time game and #3 Florida State tangles with #14 Ole Miss in the Labor Day weekend finale Monday Night. The Week 2 Billingsley Rankings will be posted by Noon on Tuesday September 6.

Crimson Tide in Familiar Spot for SEC Race

Alabama is picked to win the SEC for the third straight year and if the Crimson Tide prevail, it will be their 4th SEC title in 5 years, a feat not achieved in Tuscaloosa since the Bryant years. Experience at QB is lacking and Alabama lost a lot of talent, but under Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide do not rebuild, they simply reload. The quality of athletes passing through Tuscaloosa is unprecedented in the history of college football. Alabama’s schedule is brutal, so repeating as SEC and National Champs will not be an easy task. The Crimson Tide open with USC in Dallas and follow that with a home date against C-USA favorite Western Kentucky. But Alabama has never shied away from playing difficult schedules. They won the National Championship last season playing the most difficult schedule in college football history. The Crimson Tide play Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU on the road this season. LSU has more experience returning than any other SEC team, 8 starters on offense and 10 on defense, including Brandon Harris at QB and Heisman candidate Leonard Fournette at RB. The question is one of whether Les Miles can get the most out of that experience week in and week out. The schedule is manageable, even favorable by SEC standards as the Tigers get Ole Miss and Alabama at home, but opening in Green Bay against Wisconsin is worrisome and a loss there could derail LSU’s hope for a dream season. The race for the SEC East Title is up for grabs, basically a tight 3 way race between Tennessee, Georgia and Florida. Much has been expected of Tennessee for a couple of years, but the Volunteers have been unable to deliver. Last year’s 4th quarter meltdown at home against Oklahoma, the stunning 28-27 loss at Florida, plus the close losses to Alabama (19-14) and Arkansas (24-20) were very disappointing. The Vol fans are restless. But Tennessee finished very strong in 2015, winning 6 straight, capped by an obliteration of Northwestern 45-6 in the Outback Bowl. The Volunteers carry a lot of momentum into 2016. Georgia has a new coach in Kirby Smart. The Bulldog’s loss of Mark Richt was Miami (Fla.)’s gain. Not sure what Georgia was thinking…. but time will tell who will come out better in that transaction. Florida was quite a surprise in 2015, unexpectedly winning the SEC East after starting the season with 6 straight wins, but the end of the season was not kind to the Gators losing 3 straight, first to arch rival Florida State, then the SEC Championship game against Alabama and finally ending the season with a poor performance against Michigan (losing 41-7) in the Citrus Bowl. This is the way I see the SEC finishing for 2016 SEC East: Tennessee Georgia Florida Kentucky Vanderbilt South Carolina Missouri SEC West: Alabama LSU Ole Miss Arkansas Auburn Texas A&M Mississippi State

Parity in PAC 12 may spell doom in CFP

During the championship era of college football, 16 years of the BCS (1998-2013) and 2 years of the CFP (2014-2015), the PAC 12 placed 4 teams in the championship game. Southern Cal sent undefeated teams in 2003 and 2004, beating Oklahoma 55-19 and losing a classic heart breaker to Texas 41-38, and in 2010 undefeated Oregon lost a heart breaker to Auburn 22-19, and then lost 42-20 to an inspired Ohio State team in 2014. But since then, the parity in the PAC 12 conference has derailed any opportunity for a shot at the National Championship. With the consistency at Stanford, the resurgence at USC and UCLA, the inclusion of a very good Utah, and the rise of Washington and Washington State, I question whether the PAC 12 will have a team dominate enough to go undefeated in 2016. Much is written about the SEC being College Football’s toughest conference, and indeed, statistically the CFRC agrees with that. Top to bottom the SEC has been the Nation’s number one conference for 9 consecutive seasons dating back to the surprising season of the now defunct Big East in 2006. During it’s championship run that season the Big East’s Louisville finished 12-1 (#3), West Virginia 11-2 (#9), Rutgers 11-2 (#13) and South Florida 9-4 (#26) and just barely edged out the SEC by an average team rating of 264.740 to 263.800. But over the years the SEC has had one thing that in most seasons the PAC 12 has not…..a dominate team within the conference. Somehow, some way, a team from the SEC has managed to maneuver through the conference schedule (and ultimately the full season) undefeated or with one loss. Unless someone steps up in 2016, I don’t see that trend changing. The line between the projected division leaders in both the PAC 12 North and the South are so razor thin that literally, anyone of 8 teams could win the conference crown with a mere favorable bounce of the ball in a handful of key games. In the North Division I have predicted Washington to take the crown, solely based on the Husky’s home game against Stanford on September 30. That is a big gamble. Stanford lost a ton of talent, but Christian McCaffrey returns and single handedly, he could bring the title back to Palo Alto. Oregon is a strong factor, and the Ducks get Washington and Stanford at home, but has major question marks on both sides of the ball. So much so that it’s hard to believe Oregon will come out on top in both contests, much less navigating through road games at Washington State, USC and Utah. Washington State was a huge surprise in 2015 and easily could continue their winning trend in 2016, but it won’t be easy. The Cougars schedule is brutal with a non-conference game at Boise State, home games with Oregon, UCLA and Washington, and road games at Stanford and Arizona State. California and Oregon State are the only two teams in the North that do not figure into the title run. In the South Division, UCLA, USC and Utah will battle for the crown with Arizona State and Arizona not far behind. Even annual cellar dweller Colorado is showing signs of life and will be a dangerous team to contend with, especially at home in the high altitude at Boulder. Speaking of navigating difficult schedules, how did the Bruins end up with not one but two major powers for non-conference games? UCLA opens the season at Texas A&M and two weeks later travels to Provo to face BYU. I have UCLA picked to win the PAC 12 South, but seriously, I’m not sure what I’m thinking. The Bruins start their conference schedule with home games against Stanford and Arizona, then travel to Arizona State and Washington State before returning home to face Utah. If UCLA goes undefeated playing that schedule, they could easily be ranked #1 headed into November, but really? That schedule spells doom before they even reach midway through the season. Here is the way I am projecting the PAC 12 conference: North: Washington Stanford Washington State Oregon California Oregon State South: UCLA Utah Southern Cal Arizona Arizona State Colorado

Expansion? Big 12 Could Make Big Splash…..If they Have The Foresight

After months of speculation that the conference would expand, the Big 12 made an announcement in June that expansion was a “dead issue”. In July they did an about face and announced expansion was not only on the table, but they would like to announce the expansion teams before September 1. At this point I’m inclined to say I’ll believe it when I see it. But, if the Big 12 conference does follow through with expansion plans, they have an opportunity in front of them to take a leadership role and in the process, make a huge splash in college football. Originally talk of expansion included only 2 teams, simply the number needed to split into divisions, which is a model more suitable for their already approved conference championship game. But recently talk has surfaced about the possibility of 4 teams. If the Big 12 is truly thinking along those lines, why stop at 4? I believe the Big 12 should be thinking bigger, be innovative and more progressive. For years we have been told that the future of the sport lies in 16 team “super conferences”. If there is any truth in that statement then I propose the Big 12 be bold and create the FIRST 16 team Super Conference. Think about it. Add these 6 teams: Brigham Young, Boise State, Colorado State, Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston. Talk about a knockout blow to the rest of the Power 5 Conferences. Lock up the best available teams now and watch the dominoes fall in the other conferences over the next few years trying to play catch up. BYU, Boise State and Colorado State are already natural rivals for TCU because of the Horned Frog’s days in the WAC and MWC. Texas Tech has a natural geographical fit with those same teams. Cincinnati and Memphis fit well with West Virginia who, in my opinion, desperately needs teams in the conference closer to Morgantown in order to make the Mountaineers “more inclusive” in the Big 12. Houston is a natural fit, just as TCU was in earlier conference expansion. Take a look at this proposed division alignment: Big 12 West: Brigham Young, Boise State, Colorado State, Texas Tech, TCU, Texas, Houston, Baylor Big 12 East: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Memphis, Cincinnati, West Virginia. Looks like a knockout conference to me. Just a thought. But, for the moment at hand in 2016, the Big 12 has high hopes for another run at the College Football Playoff. My top pick for the conference title is Oklahoma. The Sooners are loaded with play makers on both sides of the ball and QB Baker Mayfield is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. It won’t be easy, the Sooners have one of, if not THE toughest non-conference schedules in the nation, opening at Houston and hosting Ohio State two weeks later, and the road game at TCU the week before Texas is very worrisome. Looking ahead to Texas and not focusing on the Froggies would be a huge mistake. The Horned Frog defense will be the best in the Big 12 and if Kenny Hill comes through at QB, TCU will be a legitimate conference title contender. Oklahoma State, however, is the team I expect to be the surprise team, not only in the Big 12, but nationally. With 16 starters returning, 9 on offense and 7 on defense, including an outstanding QB and team leader in Mason Rudolph, the Cowboys will give the Sooners and the rest of the Big 12 all they can handle and more. Don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State goes into the TCU game on November 19th undefeated. The Cowboy’s last two games are probably their toughest, at TCU and at Oklahoma. One of the biggest story lines this season will be Texas and whether or not the Longhorns can win enough games to save Charlie Strong’s job…..and what that magic number might be. My guess is that it will take 7 wins minimum and probably 8, but from looking at the schedule I think 6-6 might be a realistic record for Texas in 2016. More than likely the Longhorns are looking at losses to Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and TCU. Road wins at California, Kansas State and Texas Tech are possible, but not guaranteed by any means. Wins against UTEP, Iowa State and Kansas seem pretty safe but that means home wins against Baylor and West Virginia are an absolute must in order for the Horns to have what most would consider a successful season, and even then, the win total would only reach 8. This is the way I see the Big 12 finishing for 2016: Oklahoma Oklahoma State TCU Baylor Texas Tech Texas West Virginia Kansas State Iowa State Kansas