CFP Selection Committee Gives TCU the Shaft

Posted on November 4th 2015

Last week’s dramatic ending to the Duke/Miami (Fla.)  game proved we don’t have to have ranked teams playing one another to have an exciting weekend, but it’s nice to have it anyway, if nothing else, for the build up and anticipation of the game. This weekend we are certainly not at a loss for high profile games as 3 of the 5 Power Five conferences have games that will go a long way in determining division crowns. In the ACC, Florida State, still stinging from the last second loss two weeks ago to the Yellow Jackets, hit the road again, this time traveling to Death Valley to take on CFP #1 team Clemson. Interestingly….in July I predicted a one loss Florida State (accurately with the loss to Georgia Tech) would face an undefeated #1 ranked Clemson. I also predicted Florida State would win, but I’m sure second guessing that part of the bold prediction now. Clemson looks scary good. Down in Oklahoma, the Cowboys of Okie State are hosting TCU in a battle of unbeaten teams. In my opinion, TCU got the shaft in the initial CFP standings (which rank the Frogs #8), but I’m not getting into that because the first release means nothing……other than the fact that one of my greatest fears is being realized, one that committee members are being fed bogus information about strength of schedule. OK, maybe I will get into it after all because it’s a real sore spot for me. If the committee wants to fault Baylor for their schedule, I completely understand. I have the Bears schedule ranked at #116 out of 128. We agree. But to lump TCU into that category and say the Horned Frogs have played a weak schedule is a bunch of malarkey. Let’s review. TCU opened on the road against Minnesota, the same Golden Gopher team that just took Michigan to the wire (and I do mean the wire as in the last play of the game), they played a Texas Tech team in Lubbock (who was undefeated at the time), they completely annihilated Texas (who beat OU the next week), they beat a solid Kansas State team in Manhattan (who was 3-1 at the time) and they completely manhandled West Virginia 40-10 in their best defensive performance of the season to date. I have TCU’s schedule ranked #68, Clemson’s #51, and Ohio State’s #72. Sounds pretty comparable to me. But to hear Committee Chair Jeff Long talk, TCU has a poor strength of schedule because it’s “back loaded”. Well, I agree that it is back loaded with better teams, but you know what? The “front load” wasn’t too damn shabby either. The Committee needs to wake up and smell the coffee and start taking a closer look rather than believing every false metric they are being fed! OK, glad I got THAT off my chest. Oh, and yes, there is one more important game being played…..somewhere down South in a little conference called the SEC. My #1 team, LSU, is heading to Tuscaloosa to tangle with the mighty Crimson Tide. I imagine a few folks will be tuning into CBS Saturday night for that game.  Check out the links below for all this weeks projections.

Billingsley

Billingsley+ (Margin of Victory)

Billingsley Game by Game Pre-Season Predictions